Youth population law stabilizes total fertility rate

TEHRAN – Enacting the youth population law has stabilized the total fertility rate, slightly increasing the general fertility index over the past two years.

After experiencing seven years of decline by about 20 percent, the fertility rate is now stabilized at around 1.6, IRNA reported. 

The total fertility rate has experienced a sharp decline since the Iranian calendar year 1394 (2015-2016) as the number of births reached 1.057 million in 1402 (2023-2024) from 1.570 million in 1394.  However, since the Iranian calendar year 1401 (March 2022–March 2023), the downward trend in fertility came to a halt.

The total fertility rate has lowered to 1.6 children per woman from about 2 children per woman.

According to Civil Registration Organization’s report, the total fertility rate in Iranian years 1396 (2017-2018), 1397 (2018-2019), 1398 (2019-2020), 1399 (2020-2021), and 1400 (2021-2022) were 2,09, 1.95, 1,74, 1.65, 1.61 per each woman, respectively.

Despite offering incentives to encourage childbearing in line with youth population law, the desired growth in the youth population has not been accomplished yet.

At best, Iran’s population with a total fertility rate of 2.5 will reach 102,890,000 by the next seven years, IRIB quoted Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi, an official with the Civil Registration Organization, as saying.

In May, Hasan Farshidi, an official with the health ministry, said two years after the implementation of the law on supporting families and the youth, investigations have shown that the health ministry has played a central role in the implementation of the law.

“Since the implementation of the law, the number of births among mothers aged 20 to 24 has notably increased,” the official added.

The rate of mothers giving birth to three children increased from 16 percent in the Iranian year 1398 (March 2019-March 2020) to 18.97 percent in 1402 (March 2023 –March 2024) and even the fourth childbirth increased from 5 percent to about 7 percent, Farshidi stated.

Fertility rate should reach 2.5

In November 2023, an official with the Ministry of Health said that the total fertility rate should reach 2.5 from 1.6 before the closure of the demographic window in the next five years.

“The country is on the threshold of aging; to tackle this crisis, we must promote childbearing and youth population,” IRNA quoted Saber Jabbari as saying.

“Carrying out programs that are focusing on the youth population at the national level is a strategy to increase the total fertility rate,” Jabbari stressed.

Talking about modern methods of infertility treatment, he said all modern methods of infertility treatment are offered in the country.

A center in the Ministry of Health provides services in the field of care, education, and counseling, as well as facilitating successful and stable marriages, healthy fertility, and promoting natural childbirth, early diagnosis of infertility, and timely treatment, he pointed out.

MT/MG