The Lancet: Deaths from Israeli attacks in Gaza undercounted by 41 percent

TEHRAN – Research published in The Lancet reveals significant underreporting of the Gaza death toll due to the US-backed genocidal Israeli war.

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions estimate that the Palestinian Ministry of Health undercounted deaths by 41% between October 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024. 

While the Gaza Health Ministry reported 37,877 deaths, the study estimates 64,260 Palestinians were killed during this period.

The findings highlight that 59% of the fatalities were women, children, and the elderly, underscoring the devastating impact on civilians by mostly US-made munitions.

The study further estimates that approximately 3% of Gaza’s population has been killed due to violence during the nine months analyzed. 

Lead author Zeina Jamaluddine noted, “Our research reveals a stark reality: the true scale of traumatic injury deaths in Gaza is higher than reported.”

The Health Ministry in Gaza says Israel has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians in the territory since October 2023.Researchers employed a statistical method known as capture-recapture analysis to estimate the true death toll.

This method identifies overlaps in data from multiple sources to account for unrecorded deaths. 

The study drew from different sources of data including the Gaza Health Ministry’s hospital records, an online survey distributed by the ministry, and obituaries posted on social media.

Anecdotal evidence pointed to additional unrecorded deaths, with many victims thought to remain buried under rubble from destroyed buildings. 

The method used in this study has been applied in other war zones, including Kosovo and Sudan, to estimate mortality where official records fall short.

The researchers emphasized that the Gaza Health Ministry’s capacity to maintain accurate death records has historically been reliable but was severely disrupted amid the ongoing genocide. 

The Lancet study cited the destruction of healthcare facilities, raids on hospitals, and digital communication breakdowns as key reasons for the underreporting.

The Gaza health ministry initially relied on hospital records, but as the war escalated, it incorporated data from other sources. 

However, these methods could not fully capture the extent of the Israeli attacks on the besieged enclave. 

Jamaluddine added, “The UN’s Human Rights Office has already condemned the high number of civilians killed in the war in Gaza, and our findings suggest that the traumatic injury death toll is underreported by around 41%. These results underscore the urgent need for interventions to safeguard civilians and prevent further loss of life.”

The analysis found that women, children under 18, and individuals over 65 accounted for a majority of the deaths where demographic data were available. 

This highlights the genocidal Israeli war’s disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations. 

Additionally, the researchers noted that the annualized death rate due to violence in Gaza was 39.3 per 1,000 people, which is 14 times higher than Gaza’s all-cause mortality rate in 2022.

The humanitarian consequences of the war extend beyond violent deaths. 

The researchers warned that the total death toll is likely higher when accounting for non-trauma-related causes such as disruption to healthcare services, food and water shortages, and outbreaks of disease.

The study estimates that, as of October 2024, the total number of deaths in Gaza due to traumatic injuries could exceed 70,000. 

This reflects not only the intensity of the attacks being unleashed on Gaza but also the systemic collapse of the Palestinian territory’s infrastructure during the genocidal war.

The authors stressed the need for accurate mortality data to quantify and memorialize the human cost of the war. 

They also called for urgent international interventions to prevent further loss of life and address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.