Less than normal, normal rainfall forecast for next six weeks

TEHRAN – According to Metrological Organization, average precipitation is projected to be less than normal from April 8 to 20, and normal from April 21 to May 18.

In the first week (from April 8 to 13), the average rainfall will be less than normal. Accumulated precipitations will be 20 to 70 mm in the middle Zagros and western part of the northwest of the country, ISNA reported.

The temperature will get 1-3°C above normal in some parts of the northwest, west, and the Caspian Sea and Oman coasts. In the eastern half of the country, it will get 6-10°C, and in other areas 3-6°C above normal. Unprecedented high temperatures could be recorded in some areas of the eastern half. 

In the second week (April 14 to 31), rainfall is also projected to be less than normal. In the coastal provinces of the Caspian Sea, and some parts of the northeast, it tends to be normal.

Accumulated precipitation from central Alborz to the northwest is expected to be 20 to 50 mm.

Within this week, the temperature is forecast to be 3-6°C above normal in the southeast, and 3°C less than normal in other areas. The highest drop is expected to occur in the Caspian coast and the northwest of the country.

Average rainfall in the third week (April 21 to 27) will be normal and less than normal. The average temperature in the Caspian coast, east and southeast of the country will get 1-3°C, and in other parts 1-6°C above normal. 

Average precipitations from the fourth to sixth weeks are projected to be less than normal, and the air temperature will get more balanced, and the air temperature anomaly is estimated to be from +1°C to +3°C.  

According to the Metrological Organization, from the beginning of the spring till April 5, some 14.5 mm of rainfall has been recorded in the country, indicating a 28.1 percent decrease from the long-term average of 20.2 mm.

Over 250mm rain in previous water year

The previous water year (September 22, 2023 – September 22, 2024) came to an end with 252.7 mm of precipitation, showing a 19 percent increase compared to the year before.

The low precipitations at the beginning of the previous water year were worrisome, but the volume of precipitations improved with the passage of time.

Due to successive years of drought, the increase in rainfall amounts did not compensate for the water deficit in the country, some provinces are suffering from water shortage, IRNA reported.

A total of 10 provinces received less than normal rainfall.

According to the latest reports, the total amount of recorded rainfall in the previous water year (ended on September 23) amounted to 252.7 mm, which signifies a 19 percent increase compared to the 212.9 mm rain received in the water year before (September 2022 –September 2023).

Compared to the long-term figure, 248.7 mm, it shows a two percent increase.

MT/MG