Israel destroyed life in Gaza but it is far from victorious

After 15 months of relentless bombardment that has caused unprecedented death and destruction in Gaza, analysts say Israel is far from victorious.

Despite its overwhelming firepower and Western backing, Israel has failed to achieve several of its key objectives for the war, launched on 7 October 2023 after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. 

This failure, coupled with the immense human cost in Gaza, reveals a deeper crisis within Israel’s military and political strategies, say analysts Sami Orabi and Ameer Makhoul. 

7 October was a massive strategic, military and intelligence failure for Israel, one that its armed forces were intent on making up for.

However, in many ways Israel’s military actions have only exacerbated those weaknesses, not strengthened them, argue Orabi and Makhoul.

“Israel was forced to sign an agreement with the movement it said it came to destroy, eradicate and root out,” Orabi, a Ramallah-based political analyst, told Middle East Eye. “This means the image shattered on 7 October has not been restored up until this moment.”

But despite that failure, Israel’s sole success shouldn’t be ignored: destroying life in Gaza.

This will leave Palestinians in Gaza, including Hamas, with immense challenges in the future, they add.

No winners 

When assessing the war and forecasting its repercussions, one can’t overlook the immense human cost and the massive destruction in Gaza, says Orabi. 

“The discussion about success and failure should be cautious and reserved to a large extent, as it must take into account the human cost paid inside Gaza,” he added.

“We can say that the occupation has not been able to achieve some of its goals, but we cannot overlook the massive destruction and the severe human cost it imposed on the Palestinians inside Gaza.” 

Makhoul, a Haifa-based writer and activist, adds that considering this, there is no clear winner of the war. 

“The Palestinian people paid an extremely heavy price that cannot be described as ‘victory’ or paid for the sake of victory,” he told MEE.

“On the other hand, Israel cannot claim any form of victory. On the contrary, there is an internal feeling within Israel that it has been defeated.”

Israel failed to achieve major strategic or military victories. In fact, it could be argued that Israel has lost strategically, leaving it in a worse position globally and regionally than it was on 6 October 2023. 

Most of the goals set out by Israel after the surprise Hamas-led assault, which killed around 1,200 Israelis, have not been met.

Those include the elimination of Hamas’ military wing, toppling its government and releasing all 240 Israeli captives held in Gaza.

There are failures in achieving other unannounced objectives too, such as restoring deterrence, expelling Palestinians from Gaza and occupying parts of the enclave, according to the analysts. 

“The Israeli occupation failed to displace Palestinians outside the Gaza Strip, enforce settlement, impose long-term military occupation, eliminate Hamas or find an alternative to its rule,” explained Orabi. 

Long-term ramifications 

Makhoul goes further, stating that Israel has not only failed militarily but also strategically, with the collapse of political alliances and a tarnished international reputation. 

The alliances with Arab countries forged during the first Donald Trump administration have been rapidly eroded, leaving Israel with fewer regional and international allies.

“Israel’s strategic weight has significantly declined on both the Arab and global levels,” Makhoul asserts. 

Israel’s actions have also led to a profound shift in global perception, both analysts say. 

The West’s once-unchallenged support for Israel is now being questioned, with increasing calls for accountability. 

Makhoul notes that the Palestinian issue has re-emerged forcefully on the international agenda, particularly in light of Israel’s violations of international law. 

“The Palestinian issue is now in a very strong strategic position on the global stage,” he writes, citing the International Court of Justice’s preliminary ruling that Israel was plausibly committing genocide in Gaza and the growing international pressure on Israel.

On the other hand, Hamas will find immense challenges to resolve once the guns fall silent.

It will have to face the Palestinian people and justify the war, facilitate the reconstruction of Gaza and rebuild its capabilities, according to Orabi.

“The reconstruction process will be a major challenge,” he said.

“We have thousands of orphaned children, children who survived while their entire families were wiped out, sometimes a seven-year-old child responsible for a one- or two-year-old sibling, and so on,” he added.

“In addition, there are many wounded. There are major social questions to address.”

(Source: Middle East Eye)