Assad’s fall: what it means for US strategy toward Iran under Trump

TEHRAN – With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria on December 9, the question arises as to what consequences this will have for the United States under the presidency of Trump, who is set to take office on January 20, 2024. 

Will Assad’s fall lead to the U.S. increasing its pressures and sanctions against Iran? And if so, what advantages does the government fall in Syria offer to the United States?

On December 8, 2024, Syrian armed groups captured Damascus, leading to Assad’s departure from the country. 

Speaking at the White House, U.S. President Joe Biden said, “The upshot for all this is, for the first time ever, neither Russia nor Iran or Hezbollah could defend this abhorrent regime in Syria. This is a direct result of blows that Ukraine and Israel have delivered upon their own self-defense with the unflagging support of the United States,” he said.

The first official response from the White House underlines several key questions that will determine the shape of U.S. policy on Syria going forward. But Biden, during his short time left in office, is unlikely to provide those answers.

This means that most major decisions will likely be made by Trump.

The Trump administration’s approach to Syria and Iran

During his first term, Trump repeatedly sought to withdraw US troops from Syria. He appeared to re-up that effort on Saturday, writing on his Truth Social account that the US “would have nothing to do” with the country.

The incoming Trump administration faces a complex situation. During his previous presidency, Trump was critical of US military involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts. Trump’s administration even took steps to withdraw American forces from Syria, focusing on the defeat of Daesh (ISIS) and limiting US engagement in the broader conflict.
However, under Trump’s return to office, it is anticipated that his policy will once again emphasize confrontational approaches to Iran, aligning with his previous “maximum pressure” strategy. The following factors outline the likely trajectory of US policy under Trump after Assad’s fall:

1. Escalation of sanctions on Iran

A key question that arises from Assad’s fall is whether the U.S. will intensify its sanctions and pressure on Iran, which has been an ally of Assad. Historically, the U.S. has used economic sanctions to target Iran’s nuclear program, its missile development, and its role in backing Resistance forces in the region.

During Trump’s first term, he abandoned the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, and imposed crippling sanctions on Iran. Under his leadership, the U.S. pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign to cripple Iran’s economy.

From the perspective of the United States, the fall of Assad could be interpreted as a weakening of Iran’s influence in Syria as an ally of Syria in the fight against terrorism, which would diminish its strategic position in the country. However, this could also justify the continuation or even escalation of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The Trump administration may frame Assad’s ouster as an opportunity for efforts to reduce Iranian strategic influence in the region, thus enhancing its rationale for pressuring Iran further.

According to U.S. Treasury Department reports from 2023, U.S. sanctions have already limited Iran’s economic activities, with oil exports dropping since 2018. the Trump administration may see this as an opportunity to double down on sanctions, particularly in sectors like oil, defense, and financial services, which have been key targets of U.S. pressure.

2. Regional realignments: opportunities for the U.S.

The removal of Assad’s government could lead to significant realignments in the West Asia region, offering strategic advantages for the U.S. and its allies. The following developments could shape the geopolitical landscape:

Reassertion of U.S. influence in Syria: The U.S. has long been interested in limiting Iranian influence in Syria. A post-Assad Syria could potentially offer the U.S. greater leverage in shaping the future of the region, especially if a new, pro-West government emerges that is less aligned with Iran and Russia. This could result in increased military and diplomatic pressure on Iran.

Strengthening alliances with Israel and the Persian Gulf states: A shift in Syria’s leadership could prompt closer cooperation between the U.S., Israel, and Persian Gulf countries. These countries could increase support for US-led initiatives to isolate Iran, thus enhancing the strategic partnership between the U.S. and key regional allies.

Complications with Russia: Russia, a critical ally of Assad, may seek to reassert its influence in Syria following Assad’s fall. However, Russia’s involvement could be complicated by U.S. interests in limiting Iran’s presence. A power vacuum in Syria could also heighten competition between Russia and the U.S. for influence in the region, further escalating tensions between the two global powers.

3. The future of Syrian reconstruction and US interests

Another major issue that may arise in the aftermath of Assad’s fall is the reconstruction of Syria. The U.S. has historically avoided engaging in large-scale reconstruction efforts in regions where its strategic interests are not aligned, especially when a government hostile to U.S. influence is in power.
However, after Assad’s government fall and when a new (pro-West) government emerges, the US could be more open to supporting reconstruction initiatives, particularly if it results in diminishing Iran’s influence and fostering a pro-Western leadership as well as strengthening Israel’s foothold in Syria. 

Uncertain but Potentially Favorable for US Interests

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government represents a shift in the Syrian conflict and has significant implications for U.S. foreign policy, particularly with regard to Iran. Under the leadership of Trump, the US is likely to intensify its maximum pressure campaign against Iran, using the changing dynamics in Syria as a justification for further sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
While the collapse of Assad’s government could offer the U.S. a strategic opportunity to limit Iran’s regional influence, it also presents challenges, including the potential for a new wave of military conflicts and regional realignments. 
The outcome will depend on the trajectory of post-Assad Syria, ruled by armed groups, and how the U.S. will navigate its interests in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.