How will Hezbollah act if the Lebanese army fails to protect the border with Syria?

BEKAA, Lebanon – Amid the collapse of the government in Syria, a serious concern pops off regarding the repercussions of the developments in Syria on Lebanon and the persistence of the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire agreement as these events coincide with the Lebanese army’s preparation to enter south of the Litani River. 

Besides, there is fear of a scenario of uncontrolled convoys of displaced persons from Syria to Lebanon, which Lebanon witnessed between 2011-2017. It is worth noting that the agreement on implementing Resolution 1701 includes the Lebanese-Syrian border, which is not only related to the transfer of human smuggling operations. 

Although the anti-Hezbollah political factions in Lebanon consider what is happening in Syria an opportunity for regional and international pressure to strangle the resistance movement, they know that they will not be immune to the danger of militant groups if they advance toward the Syrian coast to control areas adjacent to the Lebanese border.

Thus, Lebanon, at all levels, seems to be wary of the moment, especially before the political tug-of-war that precedes the completion of the presidential election in a session on December 9. 

In light of these developments, the Lebanese army has taken precautionary measures along the illegal crossings in the eastern chain. It has also deployed equipment along the border with Syria, especially in Hermel and Akkar. 

The Lebanese army has also tightened its security measures at border posts, and the patrols carried out by the First Land Border Regiment along the border area have been intensified.

It is worth noting that the most dangerous areas in terms of the infiltration of militants are Qalamoun and Nabek, as militant groups have previously infiltrated from there after 2011.

So far, it is unlikely that these terrorists would infiltrate Lebanon. However, Hezbollah’s involvement is necessary to confront them in case of infiltration. 

Until the time of writing this report, no movement of militants towards Lebanon has been detected. Since the Fajr al-Juroud battle, the Lebanese army has been concentrated in Arsal, which has witnessed fierce battles with terrorist groups, noting that there are more than 90,000 displaced Syrians in the camps of Arsal (the number has increased as a result of the Israeli aggression during the past two months). 

Meanwhile, there is a consensus among the Bekaa MPs and political leaders to confront the partition aimed at changing the face of the region. Hence, they firmly insist on coordination between all parties and not exploiting the displaced card as happened in the past decade and thwart any attempt to open the borders and bring in terrorist groups.